Leucistic red-necked grebe or coming into summer moult?

Summer plumage grebes photographed at Lake Wabamun, Alberta.  

Leucism is rare in birds.  Robins seem to have the highest rate of this pigmentation predicament, somewhere above 1% of the population (one study showed leucism in 8.2% of American robins, but that must have been in a very localized area, as I have seen it only occasionally, and the numbers are much less than 1 in 12 birds).  Bird populations, on average, rank at around 1 in 30,000 birds, which is just over 0.003%.  That number seems a little low, but Google knows better than I.

What surprised me was seeing a red-necked grebe with obvious pigmentation issues.  Now, it's possible that the bird was still shedding its winter feathers in favour of its breeding plumage, but I photographed a red-necked grebe in Texas in its winter attire, and those feathers were gray.  Also, the neck feathers were completely normal, suggesting that it had already moulted.

If we were to go with Google's 1 in 30,000 probability, I wonder if I shouldn't test my luck in the lottery.  There is a 1 in 30,000 chance of finding two double-yolk eggs in a dozen from a typical grocery store.  On the more morbid side, there is about a 1 in 30,000 chance of dying in a major flooding event.  I have never found two double-yolk eggs in a carton (I had a double-yolk once, many years ago), and I am still here at 65, so my chances are good for not dying in a catastrophic flood.  And yet, I have photographed this wondrous occurrence of a leucistic red-necked grebe.

I need to be on the lookout for double-yolk eggs, and avoid high water at all cost.  You never know.

Thanks for reading.

Eric Svendsen     www.ericspix.com