Solitaire and probability

My current streak - winning 10 games in a row.

I like cards.  I prefer to play with actual people, but when it is only me a computer opponent will do fine.  I usually enjoy a couple of games a day; given the fact that I have, so far, on my current cell phone, managed to play over 2600 games, that estimate may be a bit on the thin side.  Truth be told, I also play spider solitaire, tri-peaks, crib, hearts, euchre, backgammon, and free cell somewhat regularly.  

I have always liked numbers, and games that deal with numbers and probability I find particularly appealing.  It is probably a good thing that I don't gamble, as it would be easy to be enticed into spending a fortune on something that would eventually lead to a financial black hole.  There are honest games where things are at face value, but I understand that certain websites will hook you with a "win" and then take you for everything you have.

Anyways, my most recent streak has been to win 10 solitaire games in a row.  In case you think that there is nothing to it, consider that the chance of winning one game is 54%, or 0.54 represented as a decimal.  The probability of that is 1/474, or one in 474 chances.  The best I have ever done is to win eleven games in a row; that is 1/878 or almost one in 900 tries.  I have done that twice.  Given the fact that I have played over 2600 games, it makes sense that I would achieve those wins, after all, 878+878+474 = 2230.  It should have taken about 2230 tries to get that score, and the truth is that I am only off by 15%.  Now, for me to win 12 games in a row, the chances are 1/1627, and I should have done that at least once.  

Well, now I have something to look forward to.  Does that mean I have to play another 1600 games before achieving this new milestone?  Given the fact that my winning streak of 10 came to an end today, it probably does.  It's a good thing I am not putting money on this.

Thanks for reading.

Eric Svendsen     www.ericspix.com

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